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FROM AID DEPENDENCIES
TO AFRICAN ARCHITECTURES

Reimagining National Development Banks as Architects of Transformation
$100B
IDA21 Record
300M
Mission 300 Target
55,553
UDB Jobs Created
"We're still designing African solutions in Washington conference rooms.
Today, we flip the script."

SHIFT 1: FROM BRETTON WOODS TO AFRICAN WOODS

The Challenge

  • IDA21: $100B total but donor contributions flat at $23.7B
  • Africa gets ~50% of IDA funding despite 60% of extreme poor
  • Still designing futures in other people's boardrooms

The Opportunity

  • Mission 300: $4.65B from IsDB with African co-leadership
  • UDB's Islamic finance partnerships prove alternative models work
  • South–South capital when African institutions lead

SHIFT 2: FROM PIPELINE TO PLATFORM

The Innovation: Project Preparation Factories

  • UGX 100bn multi-year PPF envelope
  • Target: 500 enterprises investment-ready by 2027
  • ROI: Every $1 in PPF unlocks $5–8 private capital
  • Template replication: Rwanda's Ireme model
"Bankability is built, not found — PPFs are the factory floor"

SHIFT 3: FROM CROWDING OUT TO MULTIPLYING

The Science of Guarantees

  • OECD: ~20% of guarantees risk crowd-out if poorly designed
  • Solution: time-bound sunset provisions + performance pricing
  • Uganda model: AGF–Centenary structure proving ~3× multiplier

Innovation Menu

  • Partial Credit Guarantees: UGX 500bn targeting 50% women/youth
  • First-loss facilities partnering Mission 300
  • Blended refinancing with IDA PSW
$1 guarantee × 3.2 = $3.2 private investment

SHIFT 4: FROM MEANS TO MEDIANS

The Inclusivity Challenge

  • Most NDB success stories benefit the top decile of firms
  • "Inclusive transformation" risks elite capture
  • We need measurement reflecting majority experience

Uganda's Leadership Opportunity

  • Pioneer Median Impact Reporting via AADFI
  • Track value-chain inclusion and geographic spread
  • Climate justice: who bears costs vs. who benefits?

SHIFT 5: FROM BILATERAL TO BASIN THINKING

The Regional Multiplication

  • East Africa: a $240B+ economy needs cross-border capital plumbing
  • Today: 17 NDBs in silos → duplicated costs, thin deal flow, FX mismatches
  • Tomorrow: pooled facilities at basin/ECZ scale (power, logistics, water, agro-value chains)

What to Build

  • Pooled LCY guarantee window (AGF/TDB) for cross-border MSME & climate assets
  • Interoperable PPF network (UDB ↔ BRD ↔ TADB ↔ KDC) with shared toolkits
  • Corridors finance: standard term sheets for ports, cold-chain, e-mobility

THE FOREST: ARCHITECTURES, NOT ONE-OFF TREES

Shared soil, mycelial networks, overlapping canopies — scale through intelligence, not size alone.

5–8×
PPF Crowd-in ROI
3×
Guarantee Multiplier
LCY
Hedge by Design
"From roots to fruits — Africa’s NDBs must grow as a living ecosystem of inclusive transformation."

CALL TO ACTION — 90 DAYS

Do now

  • Authorize a multi-year PPF envelope (UGX 100bn) aligned to NDP IV PIAPs
  • Stand up a Uganda Green Investment Facility (taxonomy-aligned) with AGF/IFC/MIGA
  • Scale LCY guarantees with local banks (women/youth/green MSMEs)
  • Adopt a Median Impact Scorecard: jobs, domestic value-add, FX, taxes, emissions
“Bankability is built, not found — and inclusive transformation is a balance-sheet question.”